These numbers in and of themselves don’t mean that much. We all know how the apparent enthusiasm for the Democratic contest in 2008 has (NOT) borne out over time. High turnout primary elections, though, do mean a great deal to data collectors. Identifying willing partisans through primary participation can be a great boon to smart consultants. So, the operative question of today is this: What will the respective parties and their operatives make of this new data set?

Based on the down ballot results—pretty good overall for incumbent/establishment/recognizably-named Republicans, in my view—the new voter file from last night’s election could be a game changing asset to the status quo team. The side with the best voter list has had a lot of success in the past few (lower turnout) statewide primary elections and huge success in the super low turnout runoffs that follow. Witness the 2014 Republican primary runoffs wherein the team that could call out their voters by name ran the table. I believe this is the boring, untold secret of Texas politics today: Lists really matter.

I believe this is the boring, untold secret of Texas politics today: Lists really matter.

Combine last night’s huge new list of 2.8M names with all of the consumer data and voter modeling that exists today and the result could be power-shifting. Who is actually willing to do that work and whether it gets done at all is the overriding question, in my mind. Data analytics is the worst kind of grinding, unsexy work to many in the consulting class—a group that generally favors their mouths and keyboards over granular data and spreadsheets. Again, we’ve already seen what great hay the Democrats made of 2008’s data dump. But maybe mainline Texas Republicans will get it right this time.

In Bexar County, Senator Carlos Uresti ran 3 to 1 over Helen Madla. This race was never in doubt, but Uresti took the opportunity to shore up his district in an impressive way.

In East Texas’ SD 1, Bryan Hughes nearly ran over 50% in a four person field. Election day voters brought him down to 48%. State Representative David Simpson looks to be headed into the runoff with a 13 vote lead over third place finisher General Red Brown. That will likely lead to a recount. Fighting over the difference between 21.25% and 21.26% of the vote is not an auspicious place to begin your come from behind narrative heading into the runoff.

Dr. Dawn Buckingham and State Representative Susan King are headed for a runoff in the sprawling Central to West Texas Senate District 24. Ms. King surprised many by leading into the runoff with 27% of the vote. Dr. Buckingham trailed two points behind. If recent history in Republican runoffs is any fair indicator, Dr. Buckingham is the likely frontrunner going forward.

There will be no competitive Senate races in the Fall.