General Election Update

Democrats are as circumspect about things as the Republicans are nervous.  There’s consensus for the most part—based on a lot of objective data—that this is a wave year, but even Dems are quick to acknowledge that they lack the money and infrastructure to do what they should to capitalize on it in Texas.  A lot of Republicans seem to be more fatalistic about things than the Democrats are optimistic.  Everyone seems to be doing exactly what they should:  Republicans are running scared for their lives, Democrats are keeping their eyes on the prize.  Everyone is working hard and smart.  (But they’re my friends, which makes them smart!)

And here’s today’s good news for all mankind: This will be over soon. 

Democrats’ optimism going forward centers on the fact that they can mark those voters off their turnout list and concentrate on continuing to turnout even more low-propensity voters. In a normal year, even high-propensity Democratic voters are slower to vote than Republicans, but they have to worry over those people until their ballots are actually cast. That’s not the case this year—they get to focus on “extra credit,” so to speak.

Basically, Democrats believe that the Republicans run out of GOTV opportunities faster than they do. It’s the “comatose giant” versus the well-oiled Texas Republican machine.  History tells us to bet on the machine.

Almost no one believes that Texas is actually in play for Hillary, largely because her investment is too little, too late. And no one faults her campaign for that. Even with a huge investment they still couldn’t have made a sound value proposition in Texas. It’s Republicans that seem to most believe that she might still have some chance. I don’t buy that, personally.

If Hillary somehow ekes her way to 45%, what Democratic statewide has the chops to run 5 points ahead of that number? Spoiler: Zero. For historical reference: Obama almost made it to 44% in 2008, dropped back to 41% in 2012. There’s been some demographic change since then, but not THAT much.

To me, the really big unanswered question is how badly does Trump screw up Republican straight-ticket voting and how many down ballot Republicans have the lead in their pencils to ride that out.